Op-ed: Shrinking Sea Ice Accelerates Global Warming as Black Carbon Continues to Escape Regulation
A inuit child jumping on sea ice in Nunavut. (Photo: GRID Arendal/Peter Prokoch)
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Although the Arctic’s sea ice is rapidly melting with troubling repercussions for the planet, the U.N. body that regulates international shipping continues to debate rather than act on a decision made over 13 years ago to limit black carbon emissions from ships impacting the Arctic.
Black carbon, primarily produced from incomplete fossil fuel combustion, is a key driver of sea ice loss and a major contributor to climate heating.
The strongest light-absorbing component of particulate matter, its impact is especially magnified in the Arctic.
Sea ice helps cool the earth by reflecting sunlight and reducing its absorption. Recently published science found that sea ice loss and the reduction in sea ice reflectivity has been significantly compromised, and the impact is more significant than assumed by most climate models.
The Arctic sea ice’s reflective effect has dropped 24% since 1980, and its cooling effect is about 20% weaker in recent years than the 1980s.
But again deferred mandatory action to require cleaner fuels.
Despite a recognition over a decade ago that black carbon must be addressed, International Maritime Organization (IMO) member countries continue to haggle over implementation.
The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), meeting in London Sept. 30-Oct. 4, adopted a voluntary measure encouraging ship owners to measure and record their Arctic black carbon emissions but again deferred mandatory action to require cleaner fuels.
Although ship black carbon emissions could be cut significantly overnight by mandating a switch to existing, cleaner marine distillate fuels, an industry representative argued that such action is premature and that more research is needed.
A number of countries spoke up in favor of developing "polar fuels" and in support for regulation, but mandatory action appears uncertain as the process is murky and easily bogged down in technical details and complexities.
Banning HFO, switching to distillate fuel, and installation of efficient particulate filters could reduce black carbon emissions by more than 90%. Discussions will continue in January at an MEPC subcommittee.
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Black carbon is both a climate forcer — a dark particle absorbing heat and contributing to warming, as well as a climate cooler — a solid particle reflecting sunlight — but the heating effect outweighs the cooling effect especially when released in and near the polar regions.
The impact of black carbon in sensitive regions like the Arctic has significant implications for global climate patterns.
Some argue that black carbon’s impact on the overall global warming potential may be less significant than initially thought, potentially negligible or possibly a climate coolant.
However, black carbon emissions in the Arctic have a disproportionate warming impact because of reflectivity loss. Black carbon heats the atmosphere and accelerates melting, exposing the dark surfaces that absorb more heat causing warming loops.
This reduces the reflectivity of the Arctic ice cap — one of the planet’s most important cooling systems.
In 2019 it called for reductions in shipping particulate matter and black carbon emissions.
Too many years have already passed without action. In 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe urged the IMO to act on black carbon emitted by ships when operating in or near the Arctic. In 2017, the Arctic Council set a target to reduce black carbon emissions from a range of sources by 25 to 33% (based on 2013 levels) by 2025.
In 2019 it called for reductions in shipping particulate matter and black carbon emissions. The IMO’s July 2024 Arctic HFO ban designed to reduce the risk of an HFO spill will initially only reduce black carbon emissions by about 5%.
But black carbon emissions continue to rise as shipping in Arctic waters increases. Despite the simple solution of switching to cleaner widely available distillate fuels, significant progress remains elusive.
Black carbon also poses significant risks to wildlife and human health. Particulate matter, including black carbon, can cause premature death, cardiovascular problems, respiratory conditions, cancer and adverse developmental effects in children.
Loss of sea ice can impact wildlife habitat — polar bears and seals lose key sheltering spots, hunting grounds and breeding sites, potentially disrupting the entire food chain.
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Scientists have warned that keeping warming to 1.5oC or below is impossible without reducing methane, black carbon and carbon dioxide. The U.N. Environment Program recognized in 2018 that immediate action on methane and black carbon could avoid over half a degree of warming by 2050, and 50% of the predicted Arctic warming by 2050.
Such action could significantly reduce the risk of triggering Arctic climate tipping points like the loss of the Greenland ice sheet that would raise sea levels globally, and accelerated thawing of Arctic permafrost that would release massive amounts of stored carbon.
The signs of warming in the Arctic are becoming ever more ominous. The northern tip of North America experienced the highest temperature ever recorded above 70° latitude when the temperature reached 89° F at Deadhorse on Alaska’s Arctic Ocean coast on August 6.
Action to reduce black carbon emissions from all sources including shipping is urgently needed to slow the Arctic meltdown and global warming. Mandatory regulatory action is required because calls for voluntary action by industry thus far have been ineffective.
This is perhaps the most significant step we can take in the near term to slow Arctic ice melt and reduce planetary heating.
