The US Steps Back From Arctic Science, Paves Way for China
Chesapeake Climate Action Network HANDS OFF NOAA Rally at NOAA HQ in Silver Spring, Maryland, on 3 March 2025. (By Elvert Barnes Protest Photography, CC BY-SA 2.0)
Six weeks into Donald Trump’s presidential term has seen major cuts and mass firings across the board. The US Arctic research community is now facing imminent cutbacks at a dire expense for the entire region. The void left by the US may be filled by other non-Arctic actors looking for a way in, such as China.
The weeks following Trump’s inauguration has seen significant cuts and mass firings of federal employees in the US. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), spearheaded by Elon Musk, is reaching far into the government apparatus, finding ways to cut costs and eliminate threats to the new order.
The Arctic research community in the US is also facing severe cutbacks and reduced funding, prompting serious concerns about the future of Arctic research and research diplomacy in the region.
Three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and the subsequent loss of all scientific cooperation with Russia, the region could now be on the brink of losing yet another major player in the North.
As climate change continues to be the biggest threat to the Arctic, many worry about the implications of the US federal cuts for the region's climate.
Targeting climate research
While information regarding the mass firings and cutbacks executed by DOGE is still uncertain, sources such as the New York Magazine report that 30,000 federal workers have been given notice. The mass firings have mainly targeted probationary workers, 200,000 of the total of 2.4 million federal workers.
The journal Science recently reported that the mass firings were decimating US science agencies, saying the "layoffs decimated the foot soldiers of many health and science agencies, sweeping up early-career scientists as well as old hands in new positions."
The Trump administration has consistently targeted climate research by cutting grants and other support for any science endeavors that focus on climate change. Many of the US president's January executive orders focused on cutting or eradicating climate programs specifically in an effort to roll back environmental and climate change initiatives that were implemented under the Biden administration.
The US has now withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and essentially stopped wind power development. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to undo the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in climate and energy in American history.
Even the term 'climate change' is now subject to severe restrictions. It has been removed from official websites, grants, and other support, and researchers must be careful not to use it if they want to keep their funding.
Project 2025 is coming to fruition
The deconstruction of climate research initiatives and institutions is a continuation of the work Trump commenced in his first term by rolling back more than 125 environmental rules and policies, according to Time magazine. It also corresponds to the agenda set in Project 25, the political initiative to reshape the US federal government, published by the conservative Heritage Foundation.
President Trump distanced himself from the Project 2025 initiative during his campaign but has implemented much of the project's agenda since taking office.
The initiative calls for an increase in oil and gas drilling through eradicating environmental protections, as well as repealing the Inflation Reduction Act introduced by the Biden administration.
Consequences for the climate
The attack on climate research incites far-reaching reactions, also in the Arctic. Climate warming takes place at a much higher rate in the Arctic than the rest of the world, making climate intervention a pressing matter.
Mia Bennett, a political geographer at the University of Washington, says that although the US mass firings and cuts in funding risk losing the ability to closely monitor climate change and understand its accelerating nature, we already know a lot about what is happening with the climate and the fact that we need to act.
"We know we need to reduce carbon emissions, and yet not enough action has been taken. That is why it is not only the cuts to climate research but the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, too, which are also deeply worrying," she says.
Also read (article continues below)
NOAA cuts
One scientific agency facing mass firings is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). At the end of last week, reports emerged stating that between 600 and 900 employees had lost their jobs at the world-renowned center. While exact numbers are still unclear, reports say that several hundred more are expected to leave voluntarily through the so-called deferred resignation program.
The NOAA plays a massive role in Arctic research, perhaps most notably through the Arctic Report Card, published annually as an overview of the environmental developments in the Arctic. The NOAA cuts were also heralded in the Project 25 initiative.
Bennett says, "NOAA maintains numerous satellites that observe the Arctic. For decades, these satellites have provided crucial data about features like sea ice to decision-makers and residents in the Arctic alike. The cuts to NOAA mean everything from the annual Arctic report card to sea ice forecasts may fall by the wayside. This doesn’t only jeopardize science and weather forecasting, but human lives, too."
"In addition, cuts to NOAA alarmingly indicate that we may lose the ability to maintain real-time monitoring and issue sufficient early warnings of potentially dangerous weather systems like hurricanes. Hurricanes are considered a natural disaster, but the reckless actions of the Trump administration indicate how much the consequences of these events are socially produced, too."
Also read (the article continues below)
Arctic science without the US and Russia
The field of Arctic science is particularly vulnerable after Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago. Following the full-scale attack, all Arctic science cooperation with the country was lost. As Russia constitutes half of the Arctic, the war has also significantly impacted polar science. Arctic science cooperation efforts, particularly regarding environmental surveillance, have now lacked 50% of the data for three years.
Now that the US is taking steps to diminish its role in Arctic science, this creates a void that others are eager to fill, such as China.
Many researchers believe science to be China's way into the Arctic. In an HNN article from October 2024, researcher Tim Reilly from the University of Cambridge emphasized how China utilizes scientific motives to access the region. He explained that China is gathering some of the best Arctic climate Big Data, establishing itself as a major player in the region.
China has already risen quickly as a scientific powerhouse in the polar regions since the beginning of the 2000s.
Bennett also believes that the current US strategy toward polar research bodes well for China:
"China has already risen quickly as a scientific powerhouse in the polar regions since the beginning of the 2000s. With Russia and the US both out of the picture so to speak, China will have ample opportunities to fund and lead Arctic research," she says and continues:
"However, lacking Arctic territory and facing varying challenges in collaboration with the other six Arctic states besides the US and Russia, Chinese research in the Arctic may focus on oceanography, atmospheric studies, and other research that can take place in the global commons rather than on land. If it continues to face challenges accessing Arctic territory, China may also work to further popularize Arctic research based on remote methods like satellite imaging."
"With the US administration waging a war on Arctic research, especially in relation to climate and Indigenous Peoples, and observations in Russia basically unobtainable except through remote sensing, it will be tremendously challenging to maintain robust pan-Arctic observing networks, which have been so important to building a better understanding of the Arctic at a regional scale since at least the end of the Cold War," Bennett concludes.
