Op-ed: Toward A New Arctic Status Quo?

This is an opinion piece written by an external contributor. All views expressed are the author's own.

Geopolitical developments in the Arctic are once again catching the attention of astute experts, interested observers, and concerned decision makers around the globe.

Several factors are causing many to cringe at the thought of what may be another installment of the great power saga affecting the Arctic and its system of regional cooperation sooner rather than later.

Add to this President Donald Trump. It’s clear that a foreign policy priority of his administration is reasserting American dominance over the Western Hemisphere. Many in MAGA world are referring to this aggressive posturing as a Monroe Doctrine 2.0.

Leveraging U.S. interests in the North American Arctic is on Washington’s mind. During his first State of the Union address since returning to office, rather than repeating his desire to purchase the island, Trump signaled that the U.S would get it “one way or another.”

Steve Bannon – Trump’s former chief strategist – recently dubbed the Arctic as “the great new game of the 21^st century.”

Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin may be starting to set the terms of a new geopolitical game in the region. Ideas of returning to Arctic energy cooperation already found a place in the initial talks on ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia.

Playing this sort of risky roulette with Russia in the Arctic falls in line with what U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg recently acknowledged is Trump’s broader geostrategic goal of breaking up the China-Russia axis (the so-called ‘revere Kissinger’).

Any ‘deals’ on carving out spheres of influence in the Arctic risks upsetting or even ending the system of circumpolar cooperation between direct and indirect stakeholders enshrined in the Arctic Council – the hallmark of the region’s political make up since the end of the Cold War.

Trump is a known multilateralism sceptic and is not afraid to brutally shake-up such formats. During his first term, his policies caused rifts with Council partners [Arctic Council. Red. note] that disrupted cooperation.

Since the Council paused work with Russia in March 2022 after its attack on Ukraine, the Kremlin revised its long-term arctic policy. It removed mention of multilateral cooperation via the Council while stressing greater self-reliance and prioritizing its own interests.

Given these circumstances, it’s possible that economic cooperation with the U.S. and Trump’s posturing toward aggressively expanding interests in the North American Arctic may nudge Russia to reshape and dominate the European Arctic.

This might include doubling down on claims toward the Svalbard archipelago and increasing hybrid activity in the Baltic Sea area, which is strategically interlinked with Russia’s military approach to the Arctic.

These thoughts are on the minds of many EU and NATO members in Europe, especially those bordering Russia, like Poland – a longstanding Arctic Council observer that sees itself as unique among non-Arctic states in scientific research.

Per its polar strategy, it seeks to maintain the Arctic as an area of peaceful cooperation (to facilitate its research priority) with Arctic stakeholders based on the respect of international law and sovereign rights.

Aggressive Russian imperialism coupled now with an American administration demanding more from its European allies is causing Warsaw to also see Poland’s Arctic position through its traditional northern security framework that links it with Baltic Sea cooperation and defense.

Poland is pivoting north to tighten cooperation with its Scandinavian and Baltic partners, including in the security and defense domains.

This development will not only open the way for more political and military cooperation in Arctic affairs, but will also interconnect NATO’s northern and eastern flanks, creating a value added European deterrent against Russia.     

Like many in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland bears the lingering scars of being a victim of spheres of influence politics in the past.

If Arctic cooperation falls victim to U.S-Russia détente and spheres of influence, Poland and other European partners will be left wondering how to defend their interests in the region.