Op-ed: Race for Arctic Cables by 2030
Alexandra Middleton and Bjørn Rønning reflect on what it will take to make pan-Arctic cables a reality by 2030.
Op-ed: What will it take to make pan-Arctic cables a reality by 2030? Can hyperscalers fill the financial gap? The critical challenge lies in developing resilient infrastructure through strategic discussion, participation, and funding, writes Alexandra Middleton and Bjørn Rønning in this op-ed.
This is an opinion piece written by an external contributor. All views expressed are the writer's own.
The world's oceans are crisscrossed with subsea cables, the backbone of the global internet economy, but the Arctic remains an unconnected frontier, a digital desert with no pan-Arctic link to the outside world. For years, ambitious plans for installing an Arctic cable depended on a joint Western-Russian partnership, stretching down the Northern Sea Route. But as relations with Russia soured, even before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this vision unravelled, leaving Arctic states to solve the challenge of bringing modern connectivity to the far north on their own. The recent incident involving the C-Lion cable running between Finland and Germany once again brings Arctic cables to the forefront of critical infrastructure resilience.
With geopolitical stakes and data sovereignty concerns at an all-time high, Russia is advancing its independent Polar Express cable, entirely separate from Western partners.
Figure 1 "Polar Express" submarine communication cable route map
Meanwhile, Europe is leading two major Arctic cable projects: Far North Fiber (FNF) and Polar Connect.
Figure 2 Far North Fiber and Polar Connect. Source: NORDUnet. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
FNF is a submarine fibre-optic cable system developed by the consortium of Cinia Oy of Finland, Far North Digital of the US, and ARTERIA Networks of Japan, which will bring much-needed broadband access to the Arctic region faced with one of the largest gaps in connectivity. FNF shall go into operation by 2027, offering reliable, high-capacity links between Europe and North America.
The Polar Connect, led by NORDUnet and Nordic National Research and Education Networks, will traverse the path between Europe and Asia via the North Pole. This route will reduce latency for data transmission and minimize geopolitical risk.
Equipped with state-of-the-art sensors, Polar Connect will enable environmental monitoring and research and will carry crucial data on climate, marine biology, and Arctic phenomena. These two cables are envisaged to form a resilient, robust network that acts as a backup for each other in securing the flow of data across the Arctic, meeting the ever-growing demands of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, while pushing submarine cable innovation forward.
Different exclusive economic zones
However, obtaining permits for sensor-enabled cables to operate within different exclusive economic zones (EEZs) along the cable route, would likely remain the greatest challenge for all projects.
These ambitious Arctic Cable projects are not without challenges. Due to the extreme ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean, specialized vessels are required for deploying and maintaining the Polar Connect cable. The project would necessitate a Polar-class (PC) 3 or stronger cable-laying vessel, with suggestions to convert one of the Finnish icebreakers, Fennica or Nordica, as there is currently no suitable cable-laying ship in Europe for high Arctic conditions.
What will it take to make pan-Arctic cables a reality by 2030?
Additionally, two or possibly three Polar-class icebreakers are needed, including the Swedish icebreaker Oden and the new Swedish Heavy Polar Research Vessel, to manage ice and create safe passages for the cable-laying ship. The Swedish Polar Research Secretariat concluded that three ships are essential: two heavy icebreakers and an ice-strengthened cable-laying ship, with plans for the Swedish government to commission a second heavy icebreaker for cable deployment and repair.
Hyperscalers not interested in Arctic initiatives
The financing of Arctic cables remains uncertain, and the stark reality must be confronted. Hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure, Meta etc., are significantly driving the growth and expansion of global data infrastructure, including transoceanic projects.
What factors are preventing tech giants from engaging in the Arctic data cable projects? Is the region's commercial viability not compelling enough, or are there other obstacles at play? Hyperscalers are nowhere to be seen engaging in Arctic initiatives.
Why is this important? These commercial giants-the biggest tech companies in the world bring financial power far beyond what can be covered by public funding alone.
Amazon, Google, and Meta are demonstrating unprecedented commitment to global infrastructure, with Google alone investing $47 billion in cloud infrastructure from 2016-2018, and all three giants planning further subsea cable systems for 2025, signaling a massive scale of ongoing and future investment aimed at strengthening critical connectivity.
Commercial players ensure economic sustainability.
Full development of Arctic opportunities necessitates a public-private partnership. It is likely that conventional government or EU funding will not suffice: Arctic cable initiatives are capital-intensive and complicated, requiring huge upfront investments coupled with long-term support. This financial gap could potentially be addressed by thoughtfully engaging hyperscalers at the table, creating opportunities to make such projects more feasible and economically viable.
Making projects attractive to tech giants
In other large-scale infrastructure projects, public institutions often played an anchor role, but it is commercial players that ensure economic sustainability. Even when a public body like the European research network GÉANT serves as an anchor tenant, it still relies on the involvement of hyperscalers and other commercial players to achieve profitability.
For Arctic data cable projects, the economic viability depends heavily on attracting commercial players who could bring essential funding and long-term operational support. Planners of initiatives like Far North Fiber and Polar Connect should consider whether projects are attractive to tech giants, as their involvement needs consideration for ensuring both financial backing and sustained commercial viability.
What will it take to make pan-Arctic cables a reality by 2030? Can hyperscalers fill the financial gap? The critical challenge lies in developing resilient infrastructure through strategic discussion, participation, and funding.
What incentives might attract commercial players to invest in Arctic cable projects? By engaging key stakeholders now, the potential of Arctic telecommunications and connectivity can be transformed and bold Arctic Cables can become tangible critical infrastructure serving Arctic communities.
