Canadian Snow Crab Industry may be Hit Hard by Trump's Proposed Tariffs
A fisherman takes in snow crabs on deck during a fisheries inspection in the Barents Sea. The snow crab prefers colder water temperatures and fishing in the European High North takes place close to the ice edge in the Barents Sea. (Photo: Jonas Selim / The Norwegian Armed Fores).
Trump's plans to impose tariffs on foreign goods could have a significant impact on seafood exports to the US market. While the Canadian snow crab industry would be hit hard by a punishing tariff of 25 percent, it could strengthen the competitiveness of the Norwegian industry.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a punishing tariff of 25 percent on all goods from neighboring countries Canada and Mexico – and recently announced that this could be introduced as early as February 1.
In line with an overhaul of the country's trade policy, the new president has also hinted at tariffs between ten and 20 percent on imports from other trade partners, including the EU.
The announced tariffs could have particular consequences for the export-oriented Arctic business sector, including the seafood industry, which has found its way into the United States to an increasing extent in recent years.
Snow crab distribution
- Snow crab are found in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans.
- In the North Atlantic, large snow crab stocks are found along the west coast of Greenland and the east coast of Canada.
- In the northern Pacific Ocean, they are naturally distributed from the Sea of Japan east of the Korean Peninsula, further north to the Sea of Okhotsk, the Beaufort Sea and the Bering Sea. Now the snow crab is also found in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea.
Source: Norwegian Institute of Marine Research.
Increased snow crab exports
The US market has become more important for Norwegian exports of snow crab, especially after the sanctions imposed on Russian crab in the US and EU.
"Snow crab is used in both the restaurant and grocery segments, and is a very important product for the latter. Among American consumers, it is not as big as salmon, but it is of significant value," says Josefine Voraa, responsible for shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council to High North News.
"Last year, over 2,300 metric tons went directly to the USA. In total, over 3,500 tons of snow crab were exported, as some goes via Denmark and the Netherlands. Norwegian exports of snow crab have seen good growth in recent years, with a stable increase each year."
Last year, the export value of snow crab sent directly to the United States was close to NOK 300 million.
Over 90 percent of Canada's snow crab production goes to the US. Any punishing tariffs on Canadian goods could have major consequences for the industry in Canada, explains Josefine Voraa, responsible for shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council. (Photo: Knut Åserud / Norwegian Seafood Council).
Lower catches in Alaska
After the United States sanctioned Russian seafood in 2022, and snow crab quotas in the state of Alaska declined at the same time, there was an even greater increase in Norwegian exports to the American market, explains Voraa.
The snow crab harvest and production domestially in the US is still too low to meet total demand.
"The Alaska snow crab fishery has been challenging in recent years with significantly lower quotas. In 2021, the quota was around 20,000 metric tonnes. This was significantly reduced to 2,500 tonnes the following year. The commercial fishery was then closed for two seasons, while the quota for this year's season is around 2,000 tonnes. Researchers still say that there are challenges with the stock. Imports have also increased as quotas in Alaska have decreased," she explains.
A punishing tariff could have major consequences for Canadian industryl
Dependent on Canada
While Norway accounts for around six percent of the United States' snow crab imports, Canada is by far the largest supplier. Over 90 percent of Canadian snow crab production goes to the neighboring country, says Voraa.
"Last year, the US imported 56,000 tons of snow crab. Of this, a full 50,000 tons were imported from Canada."
How do you think Trump's tariff plans will affect this dynamic?
"It is still uncertain how this will play out, but the demand for Norwegian snow crab will likely increase if there is a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods. Even if Norway were to potentially receive a ten percent tariff rate, it would still make Norwegian snow crab more competitive vis-a-vis Canada," she explains and clarifies:
"But the consequences will probably be spread out a bit. Canada provides such large volumes that no one can really replace in the short term. The Canadian industry would expectedly take a hard hit from the tarrifs. Consumers, in turn, can expect to pay higher prices for the products."
"With a consumption of close to 50-60,000 tons however, the United States will still be dependent on Canadian exports," Voraa emphasizes.
Not easy to adjust exports
For the Canadian snow crab industry, it will probably not be easy to divert exports from the US to other markets in the event of a potential tariff increase of 25 percent.
“Beyond the US and Japan, there are not many large consumer markets for frozen snow crab, which is what is mostly exported from both Canada and Norway,” she says.
“China and South Korea are mainly markets for live snow crab, and as a result of the sanctions, Russia has shifted its exports towards more live snow crab to those two markets, as well as frozen to Japan.”
"However, what is perhaps the biggest challenge for everyone, whether you are an exporter or an importer, is the uncertainty; uncertainty about what Trump will do and uncertainty related to countermeasures," she states.
Norwegian salmon and the US market
“There is still a lot that is unclear,” says seafood analyst Paul Aandahl at the Norwegian Seafood Council about Trump's tariff plans and possible consequences for the Norwegian salmon industry. (Photo: Knut Åserud / Norwegian Seafood Council).
Uncertainty is also the keyword when it comes to Norwegian salmon exports to the US and the effects of Trump's potential tariffs.
According to Statistics Norway, Americans bought Norwegian salmon worth 10 billion NOK in 2024, which is a doubling from 2019.
"Norwegian salmon has approximately 20 percent market share in the US. For Norway, the US market accounts for approximately eight percent of salmon exports," seafood analyst Paul Aandahl at the Norwegian Seafood Council tells HNN.
He points out that exports of salmon to the US, mainly fresh and frozen fillets, have increased significantly in recent years.
"Over the past 10 years, the growth in salmon exports to the US has been about twice as strong as the export growth into the EU. At the same time, this growth trend reversed in 2024, mainly as a result of a decline in sales of salmon to the restaurant market. We see this decline in connection with economic developments in the US," he adds.
Aandahl notes that the introduction of tariffs on seafood imported into the United States will have a negative consequence for the global salmon market.
"At the same time, we do not know what conditions Norway will receive; will Norway be kept out or treated on an equal footing with the EU? These are among the things that will have an impact," he points out.
"The salmon market is global, and a potential US tariff will lead to a movement in the flow of goods at a global level. That is, the flow of goods will move from the US to other markets. This will allow some nations to benefit while others suffer disadvantages. The effect will depend on what alternatives exporters in the producing countries have and what alternatives American importers have," he adds.
"Norwegian seafood exports to the US are important for both countries," says CEO Alf-Gøran Knutsen of fish farm Kvarøy Fiskeoppdrett AS. Illustrative image of fish farming facility. (Photo: Johan Wildhagen/Norwegian Seafood Council).
From Northern Norway to the USA
One of the exporters who sells large quantities of salmon across the Atlantic is the family-owned fish farm Kvarøy Fiskeoppdrett in Northern Norway.
Since around 2020, the company has positioned itself in the US market through the Kvarøy Arctic venture, selling among others to the grocery chain Whole Foods, which specializes in the sales of organic food, with a focus on the entire value chain.
CEO Alf-Gøran Knutsen says they have no immediate plans to change their US strategy.
– Of course, we hope that we avoid tariffs. It would not be positive for either us or the customers, but we have to take this as it comes. We are fairly calm about this right now, he tells HNN.
– During the years I have been involved, this industry has experienced exclusion from both China and Russia. We are an adaptable industry, and if one market fails, other opportunities often open up.
